Auburn vs Vanderbilt — Spread, Weather & Power Ratings (Nov 8, 2025)

Week 11 • November 08, 2025, 09:00 PM UTC

Auburn @ Vanderbilt

4-5
SEC
Power Rank: 12.5

38 FINAL 45

7-2
SEC
Power Rank: 17.7

Auburn covered by 0.5 | Game went Over by 33.5

By Liam Browne · Last updated 2026-06-13

Vanderbilt defeated Auburn 45–38 in a one-score game. Auburn covered the spread; the game went Over.

General Information

Week: Week 11

Kick Off (at stadium): 03:00 PM CST

Stadium: FirstBank Stadium

Capacity: 40,350

Elevation: 551 ft

HFA Rating: 2.0

Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Vanderbilt -7.5

Total (O/U) 49.5

Expected Score AUB 21.0 - 28.5 VAN

Power Rank Implied Line Vanderbilt +5.2

Prediction Markets Vanderbilt 68% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026

Overcast

30.2°F

Wind Chill: 25.3°F

Wind: 4.5 mph SW

Gusts: 9.4 mph

Precipitation: 0.0"

Humidity: 82%

Rain Chance: 0%

Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Auburn (Away)

This Week: 255.4 miles

Last Week: Home Game

Season Total: 5455.7 miles

Body Clock Time: 15:00

Rest Days: 7

Vanderbilt (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles

Last Week: 1499.7 miles

Season Total: 3683.4 miles

Body Clock Time: 15:00

Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust any factor to update your projected line

Your line Vanderbilt +5.2

Implied value —

Betting

Current line Vanderbilt -7.5

Total (O/U) 49.5

Power ratings — adjust if you disagree

Auburn 12.5

Vanderbilt 17.7

Travel impact

Away travel 255 mi

Home travel 0 mi

Rest Even

Home field — FirstBank Stadium

Capacity 40,350

Elevation 551 ft

Weather: Overcast

Temperature 30.2°F

Wind speed 4.5 mph

Positive adjustment = favours home team

What are the key factors for Auburn vs Vanderbilt?

Auburn: Key Factors

Freshman QB Deuce Knight delivers historic debut performance: Knight accounted for 401 yards and 6 TDs (4 rushing, 2 passing) in his first career start, tying a school record and becoming the first Auburn QB to rush for 4 TDs since Cam Newton in 2010. His explosive performance suggests Auburn has found a dynamic playmaker for the future.
Quarterback depth chart clarified for Iron Bowl: While Knight impressed, starter Ashton Daniels was held out to preserve eligibility and is expected to return for the Alabama game. This strategic decision shows Auburn is prioritizing the Iron Bowl while also developing Knight's experience.
Bowl eligibility on the line against Alabama: At 5-6, Auburn needs to beat #10 Alabama in the Iron Bowl to become bowl eligible. The dominant performance against Mercer provides momentum, but the Tigers will face a massive step up in competition against their ranked rival.
Offensive explosiveness displayed with multiple weapons: Auburn's offense showed big-play capability with Malcolm Simmons catching 5 passes for 149 yards including a 91-yard TD, and Cam Coleman adding 65 yards and a score. This balanced attack could be crucial against Alabama's defense.
Defensive concerns with key injuries mounting: Auburn lost linebacker Demarcus Riddick to season-ending shoulder surgery and defensive end Keldric Faulk during the game. These defensive losses could be problematic against Alabama's potent offense in the high-stakes Iron Bowl.

Vanderbilt: Key Factors

Historic 10-win season and CFP hopes: Vanderbilt secured its first 10-win season in program history with a dominant 45-24 win over No. 18 Tennessee, keeping its College Football Playoff hopes alive. The Commodores' strong performance, especially against a ranked rival, puts pressure on the CFP committee to consider them for a spot.
Diego Pavia's dual-threat dominance: Quarterback Diego Pavia was the catalyst, throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 165 yards and another score. His confidence and playmaking ability were key to Vanderbilt's 582 total yards, making him a critical factor in any postseason matchup.
Strong rushing attack and third-quarter control: Sedrick Alexander added 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and the Commodores dominated the third quarter, holding the ball for the first 6:35 and scoring two touchdowns to break a 21-21 halftime tie. This ability to control the game on the ground and in time of possession will be vital in their next game.
Coach Clark Lea's extension and team stability: Amid interest from Florida, Vanderbilt signed coach Clark Lea to a six-year extension, providing stability and motivation. The team's response to this news was a focused, record-setting performance, indicating strong leadership and unity heading into the postseason.

What happened in the game?

Auburn travels 255 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Vanderbilt won by 7 in a one-score game.

Auburn covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 33.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at FirstBank Stadium?

At 30.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Auburn and Vanderbilt compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Vanderbilt (17.7) over Auburn (12.5) by 5.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Vanderbilt brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Game & Team Data

CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD)

Weather

WeatherAPI.com

Model & Methodology

Vanderbilt won and Auburn covered the spread.