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Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 10:00 PM UTC
Missouri State
21
0-1
CUSA
Power Rank: -16.8
@
FINAL
20
Marshall
0-1
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -7.7

Missouri State defeated Marshall 21–20 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Marshall 9.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:00 PM EDT
Stadium: Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Capacity: 30,475
Elevation: 554 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Marshall -9.1
Prediction Markets Marshall 76% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Missouri State
Marshall
Home field — Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Weather: Moderate snow
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Missouri State @ Marshall Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Moderate snow

Moderate snow

27.3°F

Wind Chill: 20.0°F
Wind: 7.2 mph SW
Gusts: 11.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 97%
Rain Chance: 100%
Snow Chance: 100%

Travel & Rest

Missouri State (Away)

This Week: 599.7 miles
Last Week: 2841.5 miles
Season Total: 3441.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 17:00
Rest Days: 7

Marshall (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 626.2 miles
Season Total: 626.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Missouri State vs Marshall?

Missouri State: Key Factors

Explosive Offense but Defensive Struggles

Missouri State's offense showed big-play ability, with Jacob Clark throwing a 75-yard touchdown pass and Ramone Green Jr. adding a 12-yard run, but the defense allowed 42 points and 304 rushing yards, including a 93-yard kickoff return touchdown.

Fourth Quarter Collapse

The Bears were outscored 14-10 in the fourth quarter after being within 28-23, but a 93-yard kickoff return and a late interception sealed the loss, highlighting issues with special teams and late-game execution.

Season Ends with Transition to FBS

Missouri State finishes 7-5 and ends its season due to the transition to FBS, meaning no bowl game. This game was the final contest of the season, providing a mixed bag of offensive highlights and defensive vulnerabilities.

Jacob Clark's Mixed Performance

Clark threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard strike, but also threw a crucial interception on the final drive, underscoring inconsistency in high-pressure moments.

Rushing Defense Exposed

The Bears allowed 304 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, including a 98-yard run, indicating a significant weakness against the run that will need addressing in the FBS transition.

Marshall: Key Factors

Offensive Struggles in First Half

Marshall fell behind 21-12 at halftime, unable to keep pace with James Madison's explosive plays, including an 80-yard touchdown pass. The Herd's offense managed only field goals in the first half, highlighting a lack of consistency.

Late Rally Falls Short

Marshall cut the deficit to five points in the second half with a touchdown pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson to Tracy Stephens and a field goal, but could not overcome the early deficit. The defense allowed a 49-yard touchdown with 2:16 left, sealing the loss.

Carlos Del Rio-Wilson's Dual Threat Ability

Del Rio-Wilson showed promise as a dual-threat quarterback, rushing for 73 yards and passing for 154 yards with a touchdown. His mobility could be a key asset for Marshall's offense moving forward.

Special Teams Bright Spot

Kicker Lorcan Quinn made three field goals, including a 52-yarder at the end of the first half, providing a reliable scoring option. This could be crucial in close games ahead.

Playoff Hopes Diminished

With the loss, Marshall fell to 4-5 overall and 2-3 in Sun Belt play, making a bowl game less certain. The team needs to win two of its remaining three games to become bowl eligible, adding pressure to upcoming matchups.

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 600 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Missouri State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Missouri State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Does weather affect this game at Joan C. Edwards Stadium?

At 27.3°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Missouri State and Marshall compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Marshall (-7.7) over Missouri State (-16.8) by 9.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Marshall brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Marshall?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won this game.