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Week 2 • September 05, 2025, 11:00 PM UTC
James Madison
14
1-0
Sun Belt
Power Rank: 7.1
@
FINAL
28
Louisville
1-0
ACC
Power Rank: 14.5

Louisville defeated James Madison 28–14 in a double-digit victory. James Madison covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 15.5.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM EDT
Stadium: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity: 60,800
Elevation: 466 ft
HFA Rating: 3.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Louisville -14.5
Total (O/U) 57.5
Odds Implied Score JMU 21.5 - 36.0 LOU
Power Rank Implied Line Louisville -7.4
Prediction Markets Louisville 86% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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James Madison
Louisville
Home field — L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Weather: Mist
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

James Madison @ Louisville Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Mist

Mist

27.2°F

Wind Chill: 20.6°F
Wind: 5.8 mph W
Gusts: 9.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 96%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 83%

Travel & Rest

James Madison (Away)

This Week: 374.4 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 374.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 6

Louisville (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 0.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 6

What are the key factors for James Madison vs Louisville?

James Madison: Key Factors

Dominant Offensive Performance

James Madison amassed 525 total yards, including 286 rushing yards, with Alonza Barnett III throwing three touchdown passes and Jobi Malary rushing for 154 yards and a score. This balanced attack overwhelmed Coastal Carolina.

Stifling Defense

The Dukes held Coastal Carolina to minus-5 rushing yards and only 170 total yards, forcing a fourth-quarter interception returned for a touchdown. This defensive dominance was key to the 59-10 rout.

Perfect Sun Belt Regular Season

James Madison completed an 8-0 conference record and 11-1 overall, winning their 10th straight game. This sets them up as the top seed for the Sun Belt title game.

Momentum and Confidence

The team's 10-game winning streak and dominant performance against a conference rival build strong momentum heading into the championship game against Troy.

Home Field Advantage in Title Game

James Madison will host Troy in the Sun Belt title game on Friday night, giving them the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd at Bridgeforth Stadium.

Louisville: Key Factors

Dominant Rushing Attack from Freshmen

Despite missing top three running backs, true freshman walk-on Braxton Jennings (113 yards) and redshirt freshman Shaun Boykins Jr. (101 yards, TD) each rushed for over 100 yards, leading a 258-yard ground game that was Louisville's second-best of the season.

Miller Moss Returns and Shines

Quarterback Miller Moss, returning from a foot injury, completed 12 of 20 passes for 182 yards and accounted for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing), providing a steady hand for the offense.

Defensive and Special Teams Dominance

Louisville's defense held Kentucky to a season-low 147 yards, forced two turnovers, and allowed only 2-of-14 third-down conversions. A blocked punt in the first quarter set up the opening score, showcasing a complete team effort.

Rivalry Shutout and Historic Win

The 41-0 victory was Louisville's largest margin of win in the series since 1994 and their first shutout of Kentucky in 21 years, snapping a three-game losing streak and providing a major morale boost.

Bowl Game Ahead with Momentum

Louisville improved to 8-4 and will play in a bowl game (destination announced Dec. 7). The blowout win gives the Cardinals a chance to win at least nine games for the third straight season, building confidence despite key injuries.

What happened in the game?

James Madison travels 374 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Louisville won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

James Madison covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 15.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium?

At 27.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 71%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do James Madison and Louisville compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Louisville (14.5) over James Madison (7.1) by 7.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisville brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on James Madison and Louisville?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Louisville won and James Madison covered the spread.