Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 11:30 PM UTC
3
0-1
MAC
Power Rank: -19.8
@
FINAL
42
1-0
SEC
Power Rank: 11.7

Auburn defeated Ball State 42–3 in a dominant performance.

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:30 PM CDT
Stadium: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Capacity: 88,043
Elevation: 686 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Auburn -31.5
Prediction Markets Auburn 99% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Line Value Calculator

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Ball State
Auburn
Home field — Jordan-Hare Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Ball State @ Auburn Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

29.2°F

Wind Chill: 23.6°F
Wind: 5.1 mph WSW
Gusts: 10.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 67%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Ball State (Away)

This Week: 525.0 miles
Last Week: 161.3 miles
Season Total: 806.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 7

Auburn (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1371.0 miles
Season Total: 1371.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:30
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Ball State vs Auburn?

Ball State: Key Factors

Offensive Struggles Continue

Ball State managed only 9 points, with a lone touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kiael Kelly completed just 13 of 30 passes for 166 yards and threw two interceptions, highlighting ongoing issues with passing efficiency and ball security.

Defensive Vulnerability Exposed

The defense allowed 38 points and 218 passing yards with four touchdown passes from Toledo's Tucker Gleason. Most critically, they gave up a program-record 17 tackles for loss, indicating significant struggles in stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.

Lack of Explosive Plays

Ball State's offense failed to generate big plays, with their longest gain being a 15-yard touchdown run by Isaiah Thacker. The team's inability to create chunk plays limited their scoring opportunities and kept them from mounting a comeback.

Turnover Issues Persist

Kelly's two interceptions contributed to a negative turnover margin, which has been a recurring problem for Ball State. This directly led to Toledo's early scoring drives and put the Cardinals in a 24-3 halftime deficit.

Late-Season Momentum Lost

With the loss, Ball State fell to 4-7 overall and 3-4 in MAC play, ending any hopes of a bowl game. The team will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline in the offseason to improve next year.

Auburn: Key Factors

Freshman QB Deuce Knight delivers historic debut performance

Knight accounted for 401 yards and 6 TDs (4 rushing, 2 passing) in his first career start, tying a school record and becoming the first Auburn QB to rush for 4 TDs since Cam Newton in 2010. His explosive performance suggests Auburn has found a dynamic playmaker for the future.

Quarterback depth chart clarified for Iron Bowl

While Knight impressed, starter Ashton Daniels was held out to preserve eligibility and is expected to return for the Alabama game. This strategic decision shows Auburn is prioritizing the Iron Bowl while also developing Knight's experience.

Bowl eligibility on the line against Alabama

At 5-6, Auburn needs to beat #10 Alabama in the Iron Bowl to become bowl eligible. The dominant performance against Mercer provides momentum, but the Tigers will face a massive step up in competition against their ranked rival.

Offensive explosiveness displayed with multiple weapons

Auburn's offense showed big-play capability with Malcolm Simmons catching 5 passes for 149 yards including a 91-yard TD, and Cam Coleman adding 65 yards and a score. This balanced attack could be crucial against Alabama's defense.

Defensive concerns with key injuries mounting

Auburn lost linebacker Demarcus Riddick to season-ending shoulder surgery and defensive end Keldric Faulk during the game. These defensive losses could be problematic against Alabama's potent offense in the high-stakes Iron Bowl.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 525 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Ball State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Auburn won by 39 in a dominant performance.

Does weather affect this game at Jordan-Hare Stadium?

At 29.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Ball State and Auburn compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Auburn (11.7) over Ball State (-19.8) by 31.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Auburn brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Auburn won this game.