14
Final
28
9
Final
20
7
Final
42
14
Final
51
7
Final
38
31
Final
35
45
Final
19
9
Final
56
24
Final
34
0
Final
34
20
Final
27
13
Final
16
14
Final
62
48
Final
45
0
Final
66
17
Final
45
3
Final
77
22
Final
44
10
Final
42
7
Final
55
22
Final
32
31
Final
42
0
Final
70
36
Final
27
12
Final
59
43
Final
36
13
Final
20
6
Final
45
24
Final
38
16
Final
27
30
Final
23
7
Final
31
20
Final
34
17
Final
72
27
Final
26
6
Final
28
33
Final
30
3
Final
69
17
Final
45
7
Final
31
10
Final
17
10
Final
42
18
Final
16
20
Final
38
17
Final
20
14
Final
56
21
Final
20
6
Final
54
3
Final
56
14
Final
56
9
Final
63
3
Final
35
33
Final
31
24
Final
21
21
Final
45
17
Final
21
38
Final
16
20
Final
3
7
Final
68
10
Final
38
3
Final
45
35
Final
9
28
Final
23
40
Final
42
20
Final
59
13
Final
24
0
Final
68
44
Final
20
0
Final
13
17
Final
34
7
Final
23
20
Final
24
3
Final
42
0
Final
73
23
Final
30
10
Final
34
14
Final
21
17
Final
42
3
Final
48
13
Final
36
3
Final
27
10
Final
70
20
Final
37
Auburn defeated Ball State 42–3 in a dominant performance.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team

29.2°F
Ball State managed only 9 points, with a lone touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kiael Kelly completed just 13 of 30 passes for 166 yards and threw two interceptions, highlighting ongoing issues with passing efficiency and ball security.
The defense allowed 38 points and 218 passing yards with four touchdown passes from Toledo's Tucker Gleason. Most critically, they gave up a program-record 17 tackles for loss, indicating significant struggles in stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
Ball State's offense failed to generate big plays, with their longest gain being a 15-yard touchdown run by Isaiah Thacker. The team's inability to create chunk plays limited their scoring opportunities and kept them from mounting a comeback.
Kelly's two interceptions contributed to a negative turnover margin, which has been a recurring problem for Ball State. This directly led to Toledo's early scoring drives and put the Cardinals in a 24-3 halftime deficit.
With the loss, Ball State fell to 4-7 overall and 3-4 in MAC play, ending any hopes of a bowl game. The team will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline in the offseason to improve next year.
Knight accounted for 401 yards and 6 TDs (4 rushing, 2 passing) in his first career start, tying a school record and becoming the first Auburn QB to rush for 4 TDs since Cam Newton in 2010. His explosive performance suggests Auburn has found a dynamic playmaker for the future.
While Knight impressed, starter Ashton Daniels was held out to preserve eligibility and is expected to return for the Alabama game. This strategic decision shows Auburn is prioritizing the Iron Bowl while also developing Knight's experience.
At 5-6, Auburn needs to beat #10 Alabama in the Iron Bowl to become bowl eligible. The dominant performance against Mercer provides momentum, but the Tigers will face a massive step up in competition against their ranked rival.
Auburn's offense showed big-play capability with Malcolm Simmons catching 5 passes for 149 yards including a 91-yard TD, and Cam Coleman adding 65 yards and a score. This balanced attack could be crucial against Alabama's defense.
Auburn lost linebacker Demarcus Riddick to season-ending shoulder surgery and defensive end Keldric Faulk during the game. These defensive losses could be problematic against Alabama's potent offense in the high-stakes Iron Bowl.
Ball State travels 525 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Ball State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Auburn won by 39 in a dominant performance.
At 29.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Auburn (11.7) over Ball State (-19.8) by 31.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Auburn brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Auburn won this game.