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Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 11:00 PM UTC
Northern Colorado
17
0-0
FCS
Power Rank: -42
@
FINAL
21
Colorado State
0-1
MW
Power Rank: -9.2

Colorado State defeated Northern Colorado 21–17 in a closely contested finish.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 05:00 PM MDT
Stadium: Canvas Stadium
Capacity: 41,000
Elevation: 5010 ft
HFA Rating: 2.0
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Colorado State -32.8
Prediction Markets Colorado State 97% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Northern Colorado
Colorado State
Home field — Canvas Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Northern Colorado @ Colorado State Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

34.7°F

Wind Chill: 32.3°F
Wind: 3.1 mph NNW
Gusts: 6.6 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 43%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Northern Colorado (Away)

This Week: 23.2 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 69.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 17:00
Rest Days: 7

Colorado State (Home)

This Week: 0.2 miles
Last Week: 1965.5 miles
Season Total: 1965.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 17:00
Rest Days: 6

What are the key factors for Northern Colorado vs Colorado State?

Northern Colorado: Key Factors

Strong Start but Fade in Second Half

Northern Colorado led 10-0 at halftime and 17-7 early in the third quarter, but allowed 21 unanswered points in the second half, including a last-minute touchdown, to lose 21-17.

Offensive Efficiency Despite Yardage Disparity

The Bears were outgained 371-223 but managed 17 points, with quarterback Eric Gibson passing for 160 yards and the team scoring on three short runs (1-yard by Kia'i Keone, 1-yard by Aliou-Rocco Traore, and a 2-yard run).

Defensive Struggles Against the Run

Colorado State rushed for 230 yards, including three short touchdown runs (2-yard by Lloyd Avant twice and a 13-yard by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi), exposing Northern Colorado's run defense in the second half.

Missed Opportunity for Upset

Despite being an FCS team, Northern Colorado nearly pulled off a road upset against an FBS opponent, but their inability to hold a double-digit lead and stop the run in crunch time cost them the win.

Resilience and Potential for Next Game

The Bears showed they can compete with higher-level competition, but must improve second-half execution and run defense to build on this performance in their upcoming games.

Colorado State: Key Factors

Turnover Troubles Continue

Quarterback Darius Curry threw three interceptions, contributing to the team's inability to keep pace with Boise State. This marks a recurring issue for the Rams, who have now lost five straight games.

Passing Game Shows Promise Despite Loss

Curry completed 26 of 46 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns, with Rocky Beers contributing 94 receiving yards and a touchdown. The aerial attack was effective, but turnovers and defensive struggles undermined the effort.

Late-Game Scoring Not Enough

Colorado State scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter (a 4-yard run by Lloyd Avant and a 6-yard TD catch by Tay Lanier), but the deficit was too large to overcome. The team showed resilience but lacked consistency throughout the game.

Defensive Struggles Against the Run

Boise State rushed for multiple touchdowns, including two by Sire Gaines (149 yards) and two by Malik Sherrod. The Rams' defense allowed 49 points and struggled to contain the Broncos' ground game, which will be a key area to address.

Losing Streak and Playoff Hopes Dim

With a 2-9 record and a five-game losing streak, Colorado State's season is effectively over. The team will need to focus on building momentum for next year, starting with fixing turnover issues and defensive lapses.

What happened in the game?

Northern Colorado travels 23 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Colorado State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Does weather affect this game at Canvas Stadium?

At 34.7°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Northern Colorado and Colorado State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Colorado State (-9.2) over Northern Colorado (-42.0) by 32.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northern Colorado and Colorado State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Colorado State won this game.