Week 2 • September 07, 2025, 01:00 AM UTC
14
1-0
American
Power Rank: -14.5
@
FINAL
21
1-0
CUSA
Power Rank: -20.6

New Mexico State defeated Tulsa 21–14 in a one-score game. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Tulsa 6.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM MDT
Stadium: Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity: 28,853
Elevation: 3970 ft
HFA Rating: 3.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Tulsa -6.1
Prediction Markets Tulsa 61% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Your line New Mexico State -6.1
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Tulsa
New Mexico State
Home field — Aggie Memorial Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Tulsa @ New Mexico State Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

41.1°F

Wind Chill: 39.3°F
Wind: 3.4 mph ESE
Gusts: 6.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 55%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Tulsa (Away)

This Week: 672.8 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 672.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 20:00
Rest Days: 7

New Mexico State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 0.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Tulsa vs New Mexico State?

Tulsa: Key Factors

Turnover Troubles

Tulsa committed a critical fumble that was returned 95 yards for a touchdown by FAU's Damarius McGhee just before halftime, turning a manageable deficit into a 31-6 halftime hole. This turnover was a major momentum shift and highlighted Tulsa's ongoing issues with ball security.

Quarterback Struggles

Baylor Hayes completed 24 of 46 passes for 235 yards but threw two interceptions, contributing to the team's inability to keep pace with FAU's offense. His inconsistency under pressure will be a key concern for Tulsa's next game.

Rushing Attack Shows Promise

Ajay Allen had a strong performance with 23 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown, providing a bright spot for Tulsa's offense. The ground game could be a focal point moving forward if the passing game continues to struggle.

Defensive Lapses

Tulsa's defense allowed FAU to score 40 points, including three passing touchdowns and a long fumble return. The unit struggled to contain big plays, particularly in the first half, which will need to be addressed to improve in future games.

Winless in Conference Play

With the loss, Tulsa fell to 0-6 in American Athletic Conference games, extending their winless streak in conference play. This record indicates systemic issues that must be resolved for the team to be competitive in their next matchup.

New Mexico State: Key Factors

Clutch Comeback Victory

New Mexico State rallied from a 21-point first-quarter deficit to win 34-31, showing resilience and ability to perform under pressure, which could boost confidence for future games.

Quarterback Adam Damonte's Strong Debut

In his first start, Damonte completed 29 passes for 253 yards and three touchdowns, demonstrating effective passing that could be a key asset in upcoming matchups.

Running Game Success

Dijon Stanley rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown, including a 53-yard run, providing a balanced offensive attack that will be crucial for controlling the clock in future games.

Defensive Struggles Early

The defense allowed 21 points in the first quarter, indicating vulnerability that opponents may exploit; improvement needed to avoid slow starts.

Special Teams Contribution

Kicker David Barker made a go-ahead 24-yard field goal, highlighting reliability in special teams that can be decisive in close games.

What happened in the game?

Tulsa travels 673 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Tulsa arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

New Mexico State won by 7 in a one-score game.

How do Tulsa and New Mexico State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Tulsa (-14.5) over New Mexico State (-20.6) by 6.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, New Mexico State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. New Mexico State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

New Mexico State won this game.