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Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 11:30 PM UTC
Arizona State
20
1-0
Big 12
Power Rank: 7.7
@
FINAL
24
Mississippi State
1-0
SEC
Power Rank: 9.1

Mississippi State defeated Arizona State 24–20 in a closely contested finish.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:30 PM CDT
Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity: 60,311
Elevation: 381 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Mississippi State -1.4
Prediction Markets Arizona State 69% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Arizona State
Mississippi State
Home field — Davis Wade Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Arizona State @ Mississippi State Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

32.5°F

Wind Chill: 25.9°F
Wind: 7.4 mph WSW
Gusts: 15.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 79%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Arizona State (Away)

This Week: 1334.1 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 1334.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:30
Rest Days: 6

Mississippi State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 299.9 miles
Season Total: 299.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:30
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Arizona State vs Mississippi State?

Arizona State: Key Factors

Turnover Troubles Doom Sun Devils

Arizona State committed five turnovers (three interceptions, two lost fumbles) against Arizona, directly leading to 20 unanswered points and a 23-7 loss. Quarterback Jeff Sims, starting for the injured Sam Leavitt, was responsible for all five turnovers, finishing 11-of-25 for 114 yards.

Offensive Struggles and Missed Opportunities

The Sun Devils managed only 214 total yards and were held to 15 yards in the first quarter. Their only touchdown came on a 90-yard drive capped by Sims' 27-yard run, but a missed field goal and inability to sustain drives prevented them from building momentum.

Defensive Resilience Despite Loss

Arizona State's defense forced a fumble and blocked a field goal, keeping the game close at 7-3 halftime. However, the offense's turnovers put the defense in difficult positions, ultimately leading to the loss.

Playoff Hopes Dashed

The loss eliminated Arizona State from Big 12 championship contention, ending their repeat title hopes. The Sun Devils (8-4, 6-3) will now likely play in a lower-tier bowl game after reaching the CFP last season.

Quarterback Uncertainty for Bowl Game

With Sam Leavitt injured and Jeff Sims struggling (3-1 as starter but with five turnovers in this game), Arizona State faces a decision at quarterback for their upcoming bowl game. Sims' performance raises questions about his reliability in high-stakes situations.

Mississippi State: Key Factors

Offensive Bright Spot: Freshman QB Kamario Taylor

Taylor made his first start and showed dual-threat ability, completing 15 of 31 passes for 178 yards and rushing 20 times for 173 yards and two touchdowns. His performance provides hope for the future but also highlights the team's reliance on a young quarterback.

Defensive Struggles Continue

The Bulldogs' defense allowed over 500 yards for the sixth time in two seasons, including 546 total yards to Ole Miss. This recurring issue has been a major factor in their 1-7 conference record and inability to stop explosive plays.

Late-Season Collapse

After a 4-0 start, Mississippi State finished the regular season 1-7, missing a bowl game for the third straight year. The team's inability to maintain early momentum raises concerns about depth and coaching adjustments.

Coach Lebby's Record Under Scrutiny

Jeff Lebby's overall record dropped to 7-17, with a 1-15 mark in SEC play and zero home conference wins. This poor performance puts pressure on the program to show improvement next season.

Rushing Attack Shows Promise

The Bulldogs rushed for 262 yards on 74 plays, led by Taylor and Fluff Bothwell (17 carries, 80 yards). This ground game could be a foundation for future success if the defense improves.

What happened in the game?

Arizona State travels 1,334 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Arizona State arrives with a 2-hour body clock disadvantage.

Mississippi State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Does weather affect this game at Davis Wade Stadium?

At 32.5°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Arizona State and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Mississippi State (9.1) over Arizona State (7.7) by 1.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Mississippi State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arizona State and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won this game.