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Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 04:00 PM UTC
Baylor
48
0-1
Big 12
Power Rank: 9.3
@
FINAL
45
SMU
1-0
ACC
Power Rank: 9.9

Baylor defeated SMU 48–45 in a nail-biter. Baylor covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 27.5.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 AM CDT
Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity: 32,000
Elevation: 594 ft
HFA Rating: 3.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -3.5
Total (O/U) 65.5
Odds Implied Score BAY 31.0 - 34.5 SMU
Power Rank Implied Line SMU -0.6
Prediction Markets SMU 58% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Baylor
SMU
Home field — Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Weather: Sunny
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Baylor @ SMU Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Sunny

Sunny

54.9°F

Wind Chill: 53.0°F
Wind: 8.1 mph SW
Gusts: 11.2 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 33%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Baylor (Away)

This Week: 90.3 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 90.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 11:00
Rest Days: 7

SMU (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2949.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 11:00
Rest Days: 6

What are the key factors for Baylor vs SMU?

Baylor: Key Factors

Dominant offensive performance

Baylor scored on four of their first five drives, building a 20-3 halftime lead. Sawyer Robertson threw for 267 yards and 3 TDs, while Caden Knighten rushed for a career-high 104 yards. The Bears' quick start was crucial, as UCF had allowed only 7 first-quarter points all season.

Defensive turnaround

After giving up over 430 yards per game in conference play, Baylor's defense held UCF to just 225 total yards and forced two interceptions. The Knights did not score a touchdown for the first time since 2015, snapping a 121-game streak.

Michael Trigg's record-setting day

Tight end Michael Trigg caught 5 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown, setting Baylor's single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end (607) and tying the single-season TD record (6). His ability to win 50-50 balls was a key factor.

Bowl eligibility within reach

The win improves Baylor to 5-4 (3-3 Big 12), putting them one victory away from bowl eligibility. With a bye week before hosting Utah on Nov. 15, the Bears have time to prepare and rest.

Robertson's consistency and one mistake

Robertson completed 29 of 40 passes (72.5%) and has 2,780 yards and 26 TDs on the season, ranking near the top of FBS. However, he lost his first fumble of the season on a strip sack, which led to UCF's only points. Protecting the ball will be key moving forward.

SMU: Key Factors

Missed opportunity for ACC title game

SMU lost 38-35 to Cal, squandering a chance to clinch a berth in the ACC championship game for the second straight year. The loss drops them to 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play, ending their title hopes.

Slow start and defensive struggles

The Mustangs fell behind 24-7 after allowing 21 unanswered points in the second quarter. Cal scored 38 points, the second-most allowed by SMU this season, and gained 452 yards, the third-most by an opponent, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Offensive resilience but late-game failure

SMU rallied to take a 35-31 lead with 2:22 remaining, but the defense couldn't hold, allowing a 75-yard touchdown drive. A missed 52-yard field goal with 8 seconds left sealed the loss, showing an inability to finish.

Key players' performances

Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Running back Chris Johnson Jr. rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, providing a strong ground game that wasn't enough to overcome the deficit.

Bowl game outlook

SMU will await a bowl invitation after the loss. The team must address slow starts and defensive lapses to be competitive in their postseason matchup, as they've shown inconsistency on the road in conference play.

What happened in the game?

Baylor travels 90 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Baylor won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Baylor covered the spread.

The total went Over by 27.5 points.

How do Baylor and SMU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour SMU (9.9) over Baylor (9.3) by 0.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. SMU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Baylor and SMU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Baylor won and Baylor covered the spread.