Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 08:15 PM UTC
18
1-0
American
Power Rank: 10.3
@
FINAL
16
1-0
SEC
Power Rank: 11.1

South Florida defeated Florida 18–16 in a nail-biter.

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 04:15 PM EDT
Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity: 88,548
Elevation: 98 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Florida -0.8
Prediction Markets Florida 89% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Line Value Calculator

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South Florida
Florida
Home field — Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

South Florida @ Florida Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

36.3°F

Wind Chill: 33.6°F
Wind: 3.1 mph WNW
Gusts: 6.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 42%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

South Florida (Away)

This Week: 115.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 115.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:15
Rest Days: 9

Florida (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 0.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:15
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for South Florida vs Florida?

South Florida: Key Factors

High-Powered Offense but Defensive Struggles

South Florida's offense put up 38 points, with QB Byrum Brown throwing for 327 yards and 2 TDs and rushing for 136 yards and 2 more scores, but the defense allowed 41 points and big plays (three plays of 60+ yards), highlighting a critical weakness.

Fourth-Quarter Comeback Falls Short

The Bulls scored 22 points in the fourth quarter to make it a 3-point game, but their comeback effort was undone by an inability to stop Navy's rushing attack, especially in the final period.

Road Woes Continue

This loss marks South Florida's second consecutive road defeat, raising concerns about their performance away from home as they prepare for a road game at UAB next week.

Conference Title Hopes Diminished

With the loss, South Florida (4-2 in AAC) falls behind Navy (6-1) in the conference standings, making their path to the AAC championship game much more difficult.

Byrum Brown's Dual-Threat Ability Key

Brown's 463 total yards (327 passing, 136 rushing) show he can carry the offense, but the team needs better defensive support and more consistent play from the supporting cast to win close games.

Florida: Key Factors

Turnover Troubles

Florida committed four turnovers, including three interceptions by QB DJ Lagway in the first half, leading to 10 points for Kentucky and a 24-7 halftime deficit.

Defensive Struggles

Despite entering the game ranked 32nd in points allowed per game (20.5), the Gators gave up 401 total yards and 38 points, unable to overcome the turnovers.

Quarterback Uncertainty

Lagway was benched after three first-half interceptions, replaced by freshman Tramell Jones Jr. in the second half, raising questions about the starting QB for next week.

Post-Firing Slump

This was Florida's second straight loss since head coach Billy Napier was fired on Oct. 19, dropping the team to 3-6 overall and 2-4 in SEC play.

Tough Road Ahead

Florida travels to face No. 7 Mississippi next, a formidable opponent that will test the Gators' ability to rebound from a disastrous performance.

What happened in the game?

South Florida travels 116 miles to this game, a short road trip.

South Florida won by 2 in a nail-biter.

How do South Florida and Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Florida (11.1) over South Florida (10.3) by 0.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

South Florida won this game.