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Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 08:00 PM UTC
Middle Tennessee
10
0-1
CUSA
Power Rank: -20.4
@
FINAL
42
Wisconsin
1-0
Big Ten
Power Rank: 3.0

Wisconsin defeated Middle Tennessee 42–10 in a dominant performance.

By · Last updated

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Camp Randall Stadium
Capacity: 76,057
Elevation: 909 ft
HFA Rating: 2.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Wisconsin -23.4
Prediction Markets Wisconsin 97% Win Chance (Kalshi)

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Middle Tennessee
Wisconsin
Home field — Camp Randall Stadium
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Middle Tennessee @ Wisconsin Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

12.6°F

Wind Chill: 2.2°F
Wind: 6.7 mph NW
Gusts: 14.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 93%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Middle Tennessee (Away)

This Week: 523.8 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2907.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:00
Rest Days: 7

Wisconsin (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 462.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:00
Rest Days: 8

What are the key factors for Middle Tennessee vs Wisconsin?

Middle Tennessee: Key Factors

First CUSA Win and Streak Broken

Middle Tennessee secured their first Conference USA victory of the season, ending a seven-game losing streak. This win could boost team morale and confidence heading into their next game.

Freshman QB Gagliano Shines

Roman Gagliano, a freshman making his second start, threw for 268 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 67 yards and two touchdowns. His dual-threat capability will be a key factor for the offense moving forward.

Strong Running Game

Jekail Middlebrook rushed for 106 yards on 15 carries, providing a reliable ground attack. The balanced offense with Gagliano's passing and Middlebrook's running could be effective against future opponents.

Defensive Improvement Needed

Despite the win, the defense allowed 281 passing yards and two touchdowns to Sam Houston. Tightening coverage and reducing big plays will be crucial for success in upcoming games.

Comeback Ability

The Blue Raiders rallied from a 10-0 first-quarter deficit, showing resilience. This ability to overcome early adversity could be important in close games ahead.

Wisconsin: Key Factors

Dominant defensive performance

Wisconsin's defense was the key to the upset, holding Washington to 10 points and forcing key turnovers, including a strip sack that set up the tying touchdown. Linebackers Mason Posa (11 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Cooper Catalano (19 tackles) led the charge, showcasing the potential of the team's young defensive core.

Offensive struggles and quarterback uncertainty

The Badgers' offense managed only 13 points, with quarterback Danny O'Neil leaving the game due to injury in the first quarter. Freshman Carter Smith struggled in relief, completing just 3 of 12 passes for 8 yards, though he added 47 rushing yards and a touchdown. The team's passing game was so limited that a fake punt completion accounted for half of their total passing yards.

Special teams impact

Special teams played a crucial role, with Nathanial Vakos hitting the go-ahead field goal and Ben Barten blocking a 50-yard field goal attempt. However, a blocked punt gave Washington a short field for their only touchdown, highlighting both the strengths and vulnerabilities in this phase.

Momentum from coach's vote of confidence

The win came two days after athletic director Chris McIntosh announced that head coach Luke Fickell would return next season, providing a boost to the team. The players rallied around Fickell, snapping a six-game losing streak and ending an 11-game skid against Power Four opponents.

Next week's challenge at No. 2 Indiana

Wisconsin faces a daunting road test against undefeated and second-ranked Indiana. The Badgers will need to rely on their defense to contain Indiana's high-powered offense, while the offense must find consistency, especially if O'Neil is unable to play. The team's ability to build on this upset will be tested against a top-tier opponent.

What happened in the game?

Middle Tennessee travels 524 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Wisconsin won by 32 in a dominant performance.

Does weather affect this game at Camp Randall Stadium?

At 12.6°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 84%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Middle Tennessee and Wisconsin compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Wisconsin (3.0) over Middle Tennessee (-20.4) by 23.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Wisconsin brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Middle Tennessee and Wisconsin?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Wisconsin won this game.