Week 2 • September 06, 2025, 09:00 PM UTC
20
0-0
FCS
Power Rank: -33.2
@
FINAL
38
0-1
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -6.7

Southern Miss defeated Jackson State 38–20 to secure a comfortable win.

General Information

Week: Week 2
Kick Off (at stadium): 04:00 PM CDT
Stadium: M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity: 36,000
Elevation: 233 ft
HFA Rating: 2.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Southern Miss -26.5
Prediction Markets Southern Miss 84% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Line Value Calculator

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Jackson State
Southern Miss
Home field — M. M. Roberts Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Jackson State @ Southern Miss Preview

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

32.9°F

Wind Chill: 27.7°F
Wind: 5.6 mph WSW
Gusts: 11.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 73%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Jackson State (Away)

This Week: 85.1 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 255.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:00
Rest Days: 7

Southern Miss (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 0.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Jackson State vs Southern Miss?

Jackson State: Key Factors

Ground Game Strength

Jackson State rushed for 191 yards, led by Travis Terrell Jr.'s 80 yards, showing a strong running attack that could be a key factor in future games.

Defensive Struggles Against the Pass

The Tigers allowed 224 passing yards and 3 touchdown passes, indicating vulnerability in pass defense that opponents may exploit.

Late Game Offensive Spark

Ahmad Miller's 8-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter showed the team's ability to score late, but the offense needs to start faster to compete.

Special Teams Miscue

A blocked punt returned for a touchdown early in the game set a negative tone, highlighting the need for improved special teams execution.

Southern Miss: Key Factors

Offensive Struggles in the Red Zone

Southern Miss managed only 18 points despite 209 passing yards and a touchdown from Braylon Braxton. The offense stalled in the red zone, settling for field goals or failing to convert drives into touchdowns, which limited their ability to keep pace with Troy.

Defensive Lapses on Big Plays

The defense allowed three touchdown passes from Goose Crowder, including a 75-yard strike to RaRa Thomas. These explosive plays undermined otherwise solid defensive efforts, as Troy capitalized on coverage breakdowns to extend drives and secure the win.

Turnover and Momentum Shift

A fumble recovery by Kadinn Morris in the end zone late in the third quarter pulled Southern Miss within 14-10, providing a crucial momentum swing. However, the offense could not sustain drives afterward, and the defense allowed a decisive 85-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.

Late-Game Execution Issues

Southern Miss entered the fourth quarter trailing by only four points but failed to score again after the fumble recovery touchdown. The offense went three-and-out on two key possessions, and the defense could not stop Troy's game-sealing drive, highlighting late-game execution problems.

Three-Game Losing Streak to End Season

The loss marked Southern Miss's third consecutive defeat to close the regular season, dropping them to 7-5 overall and 5-3 in Sun Belt play. This skid raises concerns about team morale and consistency heading into a potential bowl game, where they will need to address offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.

What happened in the game?

Jackson State travels 85 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Southern Miss won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

Does weather affect this game at M. M. Roberts Stadium?

At 32.9°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Jackson State and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Southern Miss (-6.7) over Jackson State (-33.2) by 26.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Southern Miss won this game.