14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 14 • November 29, 2025, 08:00 PM UTC
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State
2-9
CUSA
Power Rank: -15.3
31 FINAL 24
4-7
CUSA
Power Rank: -15.2
Middle Tennessee covered by 2.5 | Game went Over by 1.5

By · Last updated

Middle Tennessee defeated New Mexico State 31–24 in a one-score game. Middle Tennessee covered the spread; the game went Over.

Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 14
Kick Off (at stadium): 01:00 PM MST
Stadium: Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity: 28,853
Elevation: 3970 ft
HFA Rating: 3.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Middle Tennessee -4.5
Total (O/U) 53.5
Expected Score MTSU 29.0 - 24.5 NMSU
Power Rank Implied Line New Mexico State +0.1
Prediction Markets New Mexico State 62% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

50.2°F

Wind Chill: 48.5°F
Wind: 4.9 mph SSE
Gusts: 9.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 42%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Middle Tennessee (Away)

This Week: 1191.9 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 10058.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:00
Rest Days: 7

New Mexico State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 74.9 miles
Season Total: 10357.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 13:00
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust any factor to update your projected line

Your line New Mexico State +0.1
Implied value —
Betting
Current line Middle Tennessee -4.5
Total (O/U) 53.5
Power ratings — adjust if you disagree
Middle Tennessee -15.3
New Mexico State -15.2
Travel impact
Away travel 1192 mi
Home travel 0 mi
Rest Even
Home field — Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity 28,853
Elevation 3970 ft
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temperature 50.2°F
Wind speed 4.9 mph

Positive adjustment = favours home team

What are the key factors for Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State?

Middle Tennessee: Key Factors

New Mexico State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Middle Tennessee travels 1,192 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Middle Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Middle Tennessee won by 7 in a one-score game.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 1.5 points.

How do Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Middle Tennessee (-15.3) and New Mexico State (-15.2) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, HFA, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. New Mexico State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Middle Tennessee won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.