Week 4 • September 20, 2025, 11:30 PM UTC
1-2
SEC
Power Rank: 11.9
7 FINAL 26
3-0
ACC
Power Rank: 22.2
Miami covered by 16.0 | Game went Under by 19.5

Miami defeated Florida 26–7 to secure a comfortable win. Miami covered the spread; the game went Under.

Florida @ Miami Preview

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:30 PM EDT
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
Capacity: 64,767
Elevation: 43 ft
HFA Rating: 1.9
Playing Surface: Unknown

Betting Information

Spread Miami -3.0
Total (O/U) 52.5
Expected Score FLA 24.8 - 27.8 MIA
Power Rank Implied Line Miami +10.3
Prediction Markets Miami 76% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

50.4°F

Wind Chill: 47.4°F
Wind: 7.4 mph NNW
Gusts: 10.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 23%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Florida (Away)

This Week: 285.1 miles
Last Week: 1064.0 miles
Season Total: 1349.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 7

Miami (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 1997.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust any factor to update your projected line

Your line Miami +10.3
Implied value
Betting
Current line Miami -3.0
Total (O/U) 52.5
Power ratings — adjust if you disagree
Florida 11.9
Miami 22.2
Travel impact
Away travel 285 mi
Home travel 0 mi
Rest Even
Home field — Hard Rock Stadium
Capacity 64,767
Elevation 43 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 50.4°F
Wind speed 7.4 mph

Positive adjustment = favours home team

What are the key factors for Florida vs Miami?

Florida: Key Factors

Miami: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Florida travels 285 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Miami won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Miami covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

How do Florida and Miami compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Miami (22.2) over Florida (11.9) by 10.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Miami brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.