14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 4 • September 20, 2025, 08:00 PM UTC
NC State @ Duke
3-0
ACC
Power Rank: 6.0
33 FINAL 45
1-2
ACC
Power Rank: 6.8
Duke covered by 8.5 | Game went Over by 19.5

By · Last updated

Duke defeated NC State 45–33 in a double-digit victory. Duke covered the spread; the game went Over.

NC State @ Duke Preview

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 04:00 PM EDT
Stadium: Wallace Wade Stadium
Capacity: 35,018
Elevation: 384 ft
HFA Rating: 2.9
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Duke -3.5
Total (O/U) 58.5
Expected Score NCSU 27.5 - 31.0 DUKE
Power Rank Implied Line Duke +0.8
Prediction Markets Duke 58% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Freezing fog

Freezing fog

27.2°F

Wind Chill: 21.3°F
Wind: 4.9 mph SSW
Gusts: 9.6 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 97%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

NC State (Away)

This Week: 18.3 miles
Last Week: 178.0 miles
Season Total: 196.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:00
Rest Days: 9

Duke (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1541.4 miles
Season Total: 1781.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:00
Rest Days: 6

Line Value Calculator

Adjust any factor to update your projected line

Your line Duke +0.8
Implied value —
Betting
Current line Duke -3.5
Total (O/U) 58.5
Power ratings — adjust if you disagree
NC State 6.0
Duke 6.8
Travel impact
Away travel 18 mi
Home travel 0 mi
Rest NC State +3
Home field — Wallace Wade Stadium
Capacity 35,018
Elevation 384 ft
Weather: Freezing fog
Temperature 27.2°F
Wind speed 4.9 mph

Positive adjustment = favours home team

What are the key factors for NC State vs Duke?

NC State: Key Factors

Duke: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

NC State travels 18 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Duke won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

Duke covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Wallace Wade Stadium?

At 27.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do NC State and Duke compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Duke (6.8) over NC State (6.0) by 0.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Duke brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on NC State and Duke?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Duke won and Duke covered the spread.