14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 4 • September 21, 2025, 03:00 AM UTC
Michigan State @ USC
3-0
Big Ten
Power Rank: 3.6
31 FINAL 45
3-0
Big Ten
Power Rank: 20.0
Michigan State covered by 3.5 | Game went Over by 19.5

By · Last updated

USC defeated Michigan State 45–31 in a double-digit victory. Michigan State covered the spread; the game went Over.

Michigan State @ USC Preview

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 08:00 PM PDT
Stadium: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Capacity: 77,500
Elevation: 177 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread USC -17.5
Total (O/U) 56.5
Expected Score MSU 19.5 - 37.0 USC
Power Rank Implied Line USC +16.4
Prediction Markets USC 89% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

61.0°F

Feels Like: 61.0°F
Wind: 2.0 mph SE
Gusts: 3.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 54%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Michigan State (Away)

This Week: 1916.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2072.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 8

USC (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 3550.9 miles
Season Total: 3550.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 20:00
Rest Days: 8

Line Value Calculator

Adjust any factor to update your projected line

Your line USC +16.4
Implied value —
Betting
Current line USC -17.5
Total (O/U) 56.5
Power ratings — adjust if you disagree
Michigan State 3.6
USC 20.0
Travel impact
Away travel 1917 mi
Home travel 0 mi
Rest Even
Home field — Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Capacity 77,500
Elevation 177 ft
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temperature 61.0°F
Wind speed 2.0 mph

Positive adjustment = favours home team

What are the key factors for Michigan State vs USC?

Michigan State: Key Factors

USC: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 1,917 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

Michigan State arrives with a 3-hour body clock disadvantage.

USC won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Michigan State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

How do Michigan State and USC compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour USC (20.0) over Michigan State (3.6) by 16.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. USC brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and USC?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

USC won and Michigan State covered the spread.