What are the key factors for Akron vs Ball State?

Akron: Key Factors

• Jordan Gant reaches 1,000-yard milestone: Running back Jordan Gant rushed for 86 yards to finish the season with 1,032 yards, crossing the 1,000-yard threshold and establishing himself as a reliable offensive weapon. He was the 13th-leading rusher in FBS entering this game and sealed the victory with an 18-yard carry in the final moments.
• Kicking game proves reliable in close contests: Matthew Schramm converted all four field goal attempts, including a career-long 48-yarder, providing consistent scoring in a low-scoring affair. This reliable kicking game could be crucial in future close games, especially given Akron's tendency to play in tight contests.
• Passing game shows big-play potential but inconsistency: QB Ben Finley completed only 9-of-26 passes but delivered a crucial 75-yard touchdown strike to Israel Polk when needed most. The low completion percentage (34.6%) indicates ongoing passing game struggles, but the ability to connect on game-changing plays provides hope.
• Defense creates game-winning turnover: Bruno Dall's interception with one minute remaining sealed the victory after Bowling Green had driven to the Akron 42-yard line. This clutch defensive play in crunch time shows the team's ability to make critical stops when the game is on the line.
• Season ends with fourth consecutive losing record: Despite the victory, Akron finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 in MAC play, marking head coach Joe Moorhead's fourth straight losing season. The team showed improvement in conference play but still struggles with overall consistency and finishing above .500.

Ball State: Key Factors

• Offensive Struggles Continue: Ball State managed only 9 points, with a lone touchdown coming late in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kiael Kelly completed just 13 of 30 passes for 166 yards and threw two interceptions, highlighting ongoing issues with passing efficiency and ball security.
• Defensive Vulnerability Exposed: The defense allowed 38 points and 218 passing yards with four touchdown passes from Toledo's Tucker Gleason. Most critically, they gave up a program-record 17 tackles for loss, indicating significant struggles in stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
• Lack of Explosive Plays: Ball State's offense failed to generate big plays, with their longest gain being a 15-yard touchdown run by Isaiah Thacker. The team's inability to create chunk plays limited their scoring opportunities and kept them from mounting a comeback.
• Turnover Issues Persist: Kelly's two interceptions contributed to a negative turnover margin, which has been a recurring problem for Ball State. This directly led to Toledo's early scoring drives and put the Cardinals in a 24-3 halftime deficit.
• Late-Season Momentum Lost: With the loss, Ball State fell to 4-7 overall and 3-4 in MAC play, ending any hopes of a bowl game. The team will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline in the offseason to improve next year.

What happened in the game?

Akron travels 214 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Ball State won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Ball State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 26.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Scheumann Stadium?

At 25.7°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Akron and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Akron (-17.2) over Ball State (-19.7) by 2.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Akron and Ball State?

• Akron team page
• Ball State team page
• College Football Power Ratings
• Home Field Advantage Ratings